Call em cellar dwellers, the cement in the basement or just straight up bad basketball betting teams. Every division has to have a last place team. Most NBA teams in last place lose far more than they win, but does this mean one should consistently bet against the worst the NBA has to offer? Logic and common sense might tell you to bet the farm against the cellar dwellers, but will this strategy pay the bills? The money line is surely priced fairly to reflect the last place team’s knack for losing, but is there value betting for or against last place teams when the spread is factored into the mix?
New Jersey, Indiana, the Washington Wizards, Golden State and the Timberwolves are among the NBA teams that are residing in the depths of their divisions. Combined, these teams have lost just over 75% of their games, which is not to be confused with teams like the Lakers who have won over 75% of their games. Betting against the cellar dwellers straight up would generate a positive return over three-quarters of the time, but even with that being the case – are you really going to find value in betting against a somewhat sure thing?
While these same teams have lost around 75% of the time straight up, some of these last place teams’ records against the spread is quite different. While Washington and Indiana perform just about the same ATS as they do straight up, teams like the Nets, Golden State and Minnesota have a much better record ATS than they do straight up. In fact, against the spread, the Warriors actually have a winning record! This means they are not nearly as bad as they are believed to be. Moreover, the Timberwolves are just about a .500 team when pitted against the spread and the Nets have won ten more games ATS than they have straight up.
No one is suggesting that an NBA bettor should bet on last place teams when pitted against the best the NBA has to offer. However, considering the win rate of these last place teams jumps from 25% straight up to 43% ATS and teams like Golden State beat the spread more than they lose to it, despite having a win rate straight up of 30%. In light of this, an NBA bettor at sportsbook.com might be well off taking advantage of the public’s perceptions of some of these last place teams and take them with the points when pitted against some of the best NBA teams like the Lakers or the Celtics, who do not fare well ATS.